[HATS] Leonids -TONIGHT

[Ed Manuel (N5EM)]

More Nuts and Bolts of the Leonids and an excellent video opportunity.

IT'S TONIGHT!!!!!

Ed


>THE LEONIDS. 
>The Leonid Meteor shower is the result of the earth plowing through the 
>debris field from the Swift-Tuttle comet. As a comet comes through our 
>solar system and begins to be heated by our sun, it begins to shed lots 
>of debris. This debris, mostly small chunks of ice, is illuminated by 
>our sun, forming the "tail" of the comet. This tail of debris remains 
>suspended in space for eons, and is relenished every time the comet makes 
>a return trip. In the case of the Swift-Tuttle comet, it comes along 
>every 33 years. However, the comet does not always cross the earths 
>path with the same exact trajectory ... it can be a bit ahead of the 
>original path, or perhaps a bit above or below the plane of the earths 
>orbit. Furthermore, the earth itself does not circle the sun on the 
>exact path year after year. Therefore, some years the earth will plow 
>through the center of the comet's debris field for a spectacular meteor 
>shower, and other years sorta of skim it, for an anemic display. And 
>predicting when a good year or bad year will occur is nearly impossible, 
>since these pieces of debris are smaller than what can be detected by 
>instruments. In other words, we don't know exactly where the core of the 
>debris field is located. 
> 
>Of the various methods used to estimate when we will plow through the 
>thickest part of the debris field, most indicated that last year and/or 
>this year will be the highest probability. 
> 
>For this Leonids, it is ESTIMATED the peak activity will occur on 
>November 18 between 0200-0400 UTC. Since the best display is where the 
>earth goes through the debris between midnight and local sunrise, this 
>indicated the best displays will be along Europe and Africa. But, this 
>is not exact science, as we could encounter the debris field earlier or 
>later than expected, and where we go through it could be narrower or 
>wider than expected. 
> 
>Since last night was a dud, means we haven't gone through the debris 
>field yet. So it *will* be sometime tonight. If we hit it when 
>predicted (02-04Z), then that will be early evening on the east coast 
>of the US, a shortly after sundown farther to the west. If it persists 
>for 6-8 hours, then it *could* produce a nice meteor shower for much of 
>the evening. 
> 
>So the moral of the story is this evening is the ideal time to look for 
>enhanced meteor activity. It could be a few extra meteorites over normal, 
>or perhaps a period of tremendous activity. So you'll have to take your 
>chances, as usual with these sorts of things, as to whether or not there 
>will be a spectacular display. Many people are predicting a very heavy 
>meteor shower this evening, but they did last year as well :-( 
> 
>If you have the means to observe the skies tonight from a fairly dark 
>location, it might be worth it. But please don't pack up the kids and 
>drive 50 miles into the country because I say so. You must take your 
>chances like the rest of us. 
> 
>But ... this year *does* coincide with the 33-year cycle of above normal 
>meteor counts ... statistically at least. 
> 
>If nothing else, listen to a distant FM station and see if you notice 
>the signal strength suddenly improving for 10-20 seconds now and again. 
>If so, meteorites are entering and causing brief periods of ionizations 
>(meteor scatter propagation ... and effect around 50MHz and above). 
> 
>72, Paul NA5N 
>
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