[HQRP] Fwd: Major X3 Flare 7-15

[Ed Manuel]

>Delivered-To: directvinternet.com%edmanuel@directvinternet.com
>X-Received: 15 Jul 2002 22:36:54 GMT
>Date:   Mon, 15 Jul 2002 22:03:40 GMT
>Reply-To: na5n@zianet.com
>Sender: owner-qrp-l@Lehigh.EDU
>From: na5n@zianet.com
>To: "Low Power Amateur Radio Discussion" <qrp-l@Lehigh.EDU>
>Subject: Major X3 Flare 7-15
>X-To:   qrp-l@lehigh.edu
>X-Cc:   qrp-canada@gpfn.sk.ca, inforhc@ip.etecsa.cu
>
>Gang,
>A major X3 flare occured monday afternoon at 2000UTC 15JUL 2002.
>The flare originated from Region 30, which is located right smack
>on the sun's central meridian.  This means the resultant shock wave
>will hit the earth in about 2 days fairly directly, triggering a
>minor to major geomagnetic storm.  As of this writting, NOAA has
>confirmed there was an associated CME (coronal mass ejection), a
>Type III sweep (indicating a strong shockwave), but has not yet
>released the measured velocity of the shockwave.  If it is above about
>750 km/sec., an extreme geomagnetic storm in 2 days or less is possible.
>
>RIGHT NOW ... the earth is still being hit from the high velocity
>radiation causing an R3 radio blackout.  It is now subsiding in the
>eastern portion of North and South America, with communications
>above 15MHz starting to open back up.  In the Western US and Canada,
>it is nearly a total HF blackout, which will persist until around
>sundown.  This is effecting frequencies up to about 25MHz ... that is,
>extremely high D-layer absorption that is highly attenuating all HF
>signals up to about 25MHz, producing a near total HF blackout in the
>western U.S.
>
>The good news, is this may cause a sudden increase in the solar flux
>for tomorrow, allowing good DX communications on 15M and 10M, sadly
>lacking in recent days.
>
>The bad news ... the shockwave from today's flare will strike the
>earth sometime wednesday (probably mid-morning or so), triggering many
>hours of geomagnetic storming.  If a major to extreme geomagnetic
>storm, this will make HF communications very difficult from extremely
>elevated noise levels.  But if an extreme geomagnetic storm, this will
>also trigger aurora that may be seen in middle latitudes.  Details on
>this part as further data becomes available and when the shockwave is
>due to arrive wednesday, and I will post the info at that time.
>
>The ideal situation would be for the shockwave to arrive at planet
>earth about 10pm-midnight EDT, allowing the shockwave and solar wind
>to blow the aurora right over the poles and the most southward trek
>over the U.S.
>
>Tonight and tuesday, HF propagation should be quite good, owing to the
>fact that the solar radiation storm portion of the flare will be over
>and the geomagnetic field is currently very quiet, and will remain so
>until the shockwave arrives wednesday.
>
>72, Paul NA5N


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