[HQRP] Fwd: Storm in progress 8-19

[Ed Manuel]

>Delivered-To: directvinternet.com%edmanuel@directvinternet.com
>X-Received: 19 Aug 2002 01:38:21 GMT
>Date:   Sun, 18 Aug 2002 19:32:55 -0600 (MDT)
>Reply-To: pharden@aoc.nrao.edu
>Sender: owner-qrp-l@Lehigh.EDU
>From: Paul Harden <pharden@aoc.nrao.edu>
>To: "Low Power Amateur Radio Discussion" <qrp-l@Lehigh.EDU>
>Subject: Storm in progress 8-19
>X-To:   qrp-l@lehigh.edu
>X-Cc:   "Prof. Arnaldo Coro Antich" <inforhc@ip.etecsa.cu>
>
>Gang,
>The interplanetary shockwave from friday's M5 flare arrived at planet
>earth about 2000UTC 18 Aug.  Solar wind went from nearly background to
>over 650 km/sec., and the density of the shockwave shot up to over
>30 (meaning a fairly dense blast).  This immediately triggered geomagnetic
>disturbances.  At 0001UTC 19 Aug., the K-index is at 5, MINOR storm
>conditions.  Extensive aurora already exists as a result.  The M5 flare
>that caused this was a proton flare, flinging gobs of protons at earth,
>which are now trapped in our polar regions, causing a Polar Cap Absorption
>Event for those in the higher latitudes.  This charging of protons MAY
>cause a persistence of northern lights due to the geomagnetic storm.
>Therefore, those in the upper tier of U.S. states may be treated to some
>auroral displays.  It *is* ongoing right now, just as evening is setting
>across the east coast.  Whether it will persist until evening sets on
>the western states is anybody's guess.  Worth a look.
>
>Needless to say, this is pretty well trashing the lower HF bands at the
>moment.  30-40M is rough, and will continue to be so throughout tonight.
>
>The good news is solar flux is above 220, meaning tomorrow during the
>day, coinciding with the geomagnetic storming ending, conditions should
>be very stable, quiet, with good propagation on 15M, perhaps even 10M.
>
>The solar cycle maximum is seeing it's last days, but there's still
>many months of potential for major to serious solar flares and
>geomagnetic storms.  In fact, historically, the largest flares and the
>storms that cause power failures, etc. almost always occur on the
>DOWNSWING of a solar cycle.  It ain't over yet.
>
>72, Paul NA5N


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